Hafizullah Amin was a Bad and Stupid Man

I find the Soviet entanglement in Afghanistan's history to be really interesting. As I read Rasanayagams outline of the events leading to the Soviet invasion, one character stands out to me - Hafizullah Amin. I'm not sure what kind of man he was in his personal life, but as a leader he was certainly cruel and in my opinion made some painfully stupid mistakes.

It seemed from the start Amin's intentions were only to eventually wrestle control over the country and set up some sort of dictatorship for himself (which he eventually did). I don't think Amin had the foresight to attempt to legitimize his power in anyway. As a leader in the PDPA and a participant in the coup, it was only natural that he would play an important role in the government - despite how dysfunctional or corrupt it may have been. However, as a murderous and scheming tyrant what possible reason would people have to accept his authority - if not for fear of their lives.

Even before these events though, Amin and many others in power seemed ignorant of the needs and realities in the lives of the rural people in their own country. Perhaps this is a testament to the schism that exists in Afghan society between the rural areas and the large cities, but I feel as Afghans the PDPA and Amin himself should have realized that forcing harsh reforms on a people rooted in centuries of tradition and set in very stern ways would only be a recipe for disaster. I had never realized how bloody Afghanistan's history was. A figure quoted by Rasanaygam estimated that as many as 100,000 people may have been executed by Amin and Taraki, with more to be followed once Amin was to take power. Perhaps you can get away with mass murder if you are Joseph Stalin and are head of the USSR, but if you are head of a state which is dependent on foreign aid for survival and a largely dysfunctional government it doesn't make much sense to me. It seemed Amin did little but accumulated enemies and public anger during his time in government.

Finally, the dumbest move of them all, was Amin attempt to negotiate with the United States. For years Afghanistan received huge amounts of aid from the Soviet Union, it must have occurred to Amin that the Soviets had important interests in the region - interests which would be threatened by Western advances. I think it's pretty remarkable that Amin did not foresee that breaking ties to the Soviet Union and attempting to form relations with the United States would provoke a Soviet invasion. Perhaps he misjudged and thought America would be much more eager to become Afghanistan's new friend, which may have caused hesitation by the Soviet Union. I'm not sure that's likely though, seeing as he knew there were Soviet forces stationed on the border and some already in the country at the time.

Whatever Amin was thinking, this decision eventually lead to his death and a quagmire lasting nine years the conclusion of which inevitably (and somewhat ironically) has led to our own War in Afghanistan. It's unfortunate that one man's stupidity and brutality has caused (or at least exacerbated) so much fighting and suffering of the Afghan people.