Afghanistan and Oil

I remember when it was announced that we were invading Afghanistan on television. I was only 11 years old, and had never even heard of the country, but I remember it being a confusing time. I suppose when you're that young, the rest of the world doesn't really seem like a real place. I'd like to think that I've become a bit more aware since then, but only during the past few class discussions, coupled with what Mr. Butler had to say (who was also introduced in class) that have things really begun to make sense - at least on the part of the United States involvement in Afghanistan and the region.

Let me first preface by saying that I am not one to buy into conspiracy theories and extraordinary claims without evidence in proportion to the claim. As a physics student who is training to one day enter the scientific community, you are reminded frequently to be distrustful of peoples claims unless they are supported by compelling evidence. That is the guiding principle of science - theories and ideas must be supported by observable evidence (and in general solid mathematical footing, but that doesn't apply to the softer sciences in all cases). This principle has worked out pretty good so far. Human beings wallowed in ignorance of the working of the world for millenia until a few smart guys in Europe started a revolution in thought that would lead to men standing on the moon, instantaneous (in human terms) global communication, and eradication of diseases that once killed thousands, just to name a few of the triumphs of science.

So with that in mind, there's no reason to approach Social issues any differently. Although the complicated social fabric of human affairs can often be a tangled mess in which the "evidence" is in it's self questionable, I think the process of critical thought is equally as valid in examining American foreign policies as it is in deriving a mathematical law of nature. Thinking realistically and considering what Americas motivations were for invading Afghanistan, I'm lead to the same conclusion many others have put forward - that it's about oil.

Just think about what oil means to America. It fuels our cars, our power plants, our factories, it heats our homes, schools, and workplaces, we derived useful chemicals from it such as plastics which have become a huge industry in it's self, and possibly most importantly it fuels our military, and that means it fuels our foreign affairs. The fact is, oil is the number one national security issue. I really don't think it's possible to dispute that, we are utterly dependent upon the substance. And like a heroin addict, we will go to great lengths to ensure we can continue getting it. However, Afghanistan might seem like a strange place to be if we are interested in oil - after all there really isn't any oil there. Many of Afghanistan's neighbors, however, do have oil. Or, in the case of Tajikistan, natural gas, which has equally important applications in industry, industry that is exploding in places like China and India.

After my spiel about the great scientific method, it seems hypocritical the way I'm going about this short essay without citing some of these claims and providing sources, but then I'd be doing two research papers a week, and that isn't feasible. So I have to be fairly informal and I wouldn't expect anyone who read this (which in all likely hood will be two people, one of which is myself) to be convinced, rather I am only putting my thoughts into words here. That being said, according the the wikipedia article on the TAPI pipeline, the line would pump 27 billion cubic feet of natural gas per year. Lets just look at how much money that would be.

According the to DOE's monthly natural gas report , the current price of natural gas is about $12 per 1000 cubic feet.

So at a rate of 27 billion cubic feet per year, that equates to 27,000,000,000/1000 x $12.00 = $324,000,000 dollars a year, and that's only one pipeline. Now, clearly the government is not in Afghanistan for one pipeline, but I have come to believe that we are there to secure a pro-American government who can be a major player in the oil and natural gas market - especially those markets which will be focused on selling to India. When you consider the fact that the U.S. president at the time of the invasion, George Bush and his vice president Dick Cheney both worked in the oil business, this is not a stretch.

I think was our presence limited only to Afghanistan this argument about oil would be pretty weak - we did have some legitimate reasons for invading. The Taliban were and are a radical group who did sponsor Al-Qaeda which was responsible for attacks on the United States, and that we couldn't sit idly by about. However, I don't think that alone is justification for a full invasion either. Taking both of these two main factors together though, then it makes perfect sense to invade. The argument is made even stronger when one considers the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the disastrous circumstances involving that war.

I am giving certain people too much credit perhaps though. When all is said and done, people are simple, and people in power are motivated by simple things. National security, the good of the nation, these are all grand notions, but in my opinion, Afghanistan, and especially Iraq, were motivated by simple human greed. The opportunity presented its self to not only secure Americas interested in the region, but also the interests of individuals who sought to make a personal fortune. This type of thing is common throughout history, and dictators, kings and other men of power have often gone to war for personal gain. It may be hard believe that this is still going on, in America especially, but in the end why shouldn't it? Humans haven't changed, and greed is as powerful a motivator as ever. You'll notice that I haven't even entertained the idea that we invaded to somehow "liberate" these people.

For a long time I'd thought about the war, and it never made any sense to me. I think what class has done so far, and reading Rasanyagam too, is to begin to fill in those missing pieces for me. So in summary, I believe it is very likely that Afghanistan was motivated by legitimate reasons, but there was also a desire to establish a larger American presence in the region having to do with oil. I believe the invasion of Iraq offers strong support for the latter statement.Perhaps as I learn more my opinion my change, but all signs seems to be pointing in the direction of this conclusion.