Osama Bin Laden

So here I was last night worrying about finding a topic to blog about, and then I heard the news - the CIA had killed Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan... talk about a relevant news story. I was pretty shocked personally, as I really didn't expect we'd ever find Osama after the miserable failure of the Bush administration. What wasn't surprising, however, was to hear he was living in Pakistan - an hours drive from Islamabad no less. I think it's fair to ask what this means for the War in Afghanistan, and the "War on Terror" in general.

First things first - I do not expect that this will have a huge impact on Al-Qaeda or terrorism in general. Certainly this is a big blow to the organization, but ultimately I don't think Osama has played as important of a role as he did in the past. In the past, Osama was directly involved with fund raising, planning attacks, and issuing propaganda and rhetoric to inspire volunteers to die for his distorted views of jihad and Islam. Since 2001, I think Osamas involvement in the organization has been severly limited as his sole priority has been to remain hidden and alive - which he managed to do for nine and a half years.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a short-lived rise in attacks as misguided young men are inspired by this "martyrdom", but ultimately these types of movements require a face and voice. Osama's face is certainly one which the world is safer without, but my feeling is that ultimately he will be easily replaced as a new generation of extremism is grown from the harsh, impoverished and desperate lives many in Central Asia and the Middle East live - and that is the real root of terrorism. Still, Osama was an influential man, and he is responsible for the violent deaths of thousands of people around the world. His death is a consolation to many, but my suspicion is that ultimately killing him will not do very much to end terrorist attacks throughout the world.

What this event is, more than anything, is an enormous political victory of Barrack Obama, and he may have brilliantly just ensured his re-election. One of the Republicans main points of attack on Obama has been that the implication that he is a Muslim sympathizer and that he is soft on terrorism. I think this is what helped Bush secure re-election in 2004, as 9/11 was fresh in people's minds and the ever present color coded terrorism threat weighed heavily on peoples decision. Obama has just shown that he was able to accomplish in three years what Bush failed to do in eight - kill the most hated terrorist in American history. This is a huge boost to Obamas credibility, both at home and overseas. At the same time, Obama has tactfully reminded the Muslim world that Al-Qaeda has murdered thousands of Muslims, and was clear that they should celebrate this as victory with the U.S. - a smart move.

This may also have implications for Afghanistan. To many Americans, the reason for invading Afghanistan was to get Osama Bin Laden and remove the safe-havens of Al-Qaeda, and now both of those tasks are complete. This could possibly be an "out" for Obama - a way to justify ending the war without looking weak in the process. No one can accuse him of  "cutting and running", and at the same time he can bring an increasingly unpopular war to an end. It's win-win for him. Now, as a student of this class I can recognize that there are far more important reasons for being in Afghanistan than getting Osama Bin Laden, but for the sake of Political Expediency, this may very well be the beginning of the end to this war - whether that is a good thing or not.

So, I think while Osama's death has made the world a little bit safer, ultimately the real significance here is not that the war on terror has been won, but the implications this has for Obama's presidential campaign and the U.S. policies in Central Asia in the years to come. I'd like to think this is a positive thing - a possible turning point - but I remain skeptical and as always, nothing is ever simple or easy in Afghanistan and Pakistan.