Afghanistan: Moving Forward

We've been fighting in Afghanistan for nine and a half years - longer than any other war in U.S. history. The current situation in Afghanistan is a combination of a number of historical factors, policy blunders, mistakes, and failed lessons. The Taliban are currently waging a very effective insurgency from the relative safety of Pakistan, and the U.S. military is still reeling from the neglect Afghanistan experienced during the Bush administration. I think, however, we are approaching a turning point in this war, one which will hopefully result in an Afghanistan which is finally at peace and can heal from the decades old wounds of perpetual warfare and bloodshed. The following is my opinion based on what I've learned from this course on how to achieve that end.

The first step forward is the realization that with the limited resources we have, we cannot defeat the Taliban by any conventional means. There is no capital to seize, no fortress to breach, and no line in the sand over which one we cross, we can claim victory. They are an amorphous enemy who are as flexible as they are determined. So long as America continues this war, and the country remains gripped by poverty, and in some areas starvation, the Taliban will always have a base of support, a supply of recruits, and a means by which to continue their war. Further, so long as they can freely move in and out of Pakistan, which they will always be able to, we can never pin them down.

I think this has already been realized, as indicated by talk of some future political settlement with the Taliban. The next step forward, is to actually begin initiating those discussions. With the death of Osama Bin Laden, that may happen sooner than later, which is a good thing. However, this will require compromise on both sides – including compromise by the Karzai government. One of the major blunders of the U.S. at the start of the war, the reinstatement of the warlords , some of whom  were eventually incorporated into the Karzai government, may actually turn out to benefit us in the end. The warlords are men who understand compromise and probably understand the Taliban far better than the bureaucrats and ideologue politicians. Still – this will require serious commitment by all three parties involved, and it is vital for the U.S. that a permanent arrangement is reached which will provide stability, and not ignite further conflict.

While this is happening, it is also vital that the U.S. engage in nation building. If you provide opportunity for people to support their families and earn a living, you remove much of the fundamental reasons for young men to join the Taliban in the first place - to earn money. On top of that, if the economy is growing, the people are happy, which builds support for the government, and most importantly of all, provides revenue for the government such that it can afford to provide basic services, a police force and a military to provide security for the people. It is a positive feedback loop which leads to development and stability. However, it will require an investment by the United States - the kind of investment that went into rebuilding Japan and west Germany after the second world war. Further, it will require significant oversight by the U.S., as the Karzai government is ripe with corruption. This includes doing away with the contractors who are currently robbing the government blind.

One must not only focus on Afghanistan though, we must be wary of external forces who have interests in the country. Pakistan, especially, but India, Iran and China too. Each is a potentially destabilizing force, and the U.S. must do all it can to prevent their interference in Afghanistan's future - because it is not they whom will be paying the price for ten years of involvement. We are the ones who are footing the bill, both for helping to destroy the country, and hopefully to rebuild it. It is in both our and Afghanistan's interests to see that outside forces be kept in check.

And that's that. Of course, the devil is always in the details, but I think these are the fundamental issues that lay in wake of  the path forward. Much of this I have already echoed throughout my other blog posts, so I only present a concise description of what I feel are the most important goals in ending this war. I've learned a lot from this course, and even if my views are naive I feel I am far better informed about the war than most people my age as a result. Thanks for an enjoyable semester Professor Breyman.