The situation in Pakistan is an interesting one, at least as interesting as it is dangerous. Pakistan is a nation whose military's sole purpose seems to be to prepare and wait for the next confrontation with India, and whose slimy intelligence agency - the ISI - seems to justify anything by always relating it to India.The ISI seems to never tire of playing both sides of the fence, and the military seems completely reluctant to stem the growth of Jihadist movements within its borders... and this is our ally in the region...
The whole situation is a complete mess. On the one hand the stability of Pakistan is crucial to our success in Afghanistan - we rely on them for trucking routes, to help provide intelligence and as an important political ally in the region. Yet, they almost seem to undermine every American effort... it seems that we need Pakistan, and it seems that the real enemy is Pakistan.Things might not be so complicated if it weren't for the fact that Pakistan has nuclear weapons, and is controlled by an unstable government which is now facing a rising insurgency of its own... and in the background looms India and the never ending Kashmir dispute, a weak economy and a population who is largely impoverished and prone to radicalism.
I really don't think America can have its cake and eat it too. It seems to me that so long as Pakistan remains a safe haven for the Taliban, one which they can freely cross into and gain access to weapons and a continual supply of recruits, we will never be able to gain enough ground in Afghanistan to be able to leave. And so long as the war continues, there is little hope of economic recovery and development within Afghanistan, which means the Karzai government will remain weak and fragile and completely dependent on America to pay for and manage its armed forces. At the same time, the ISI continues to support the Taliban so as to stamp out any possible influence from India in the country, and the knowledge that the military is unlikely to move against them in Pakistan boosts Taliban moral all the more.We cannot secure the border on our own, and even if Pakistan could, they would never be willing to deploy large resources on their Western border with big bad India to the east.
It seems as time goes on, the Taliban position only gets stronger. The longer the Americans stay, the more civilian casualties will occur and the more hatred for America will exist in Afghanistan. This not only strengthens the Taliban, but it is crippling to the Karzai government who at this point seems hopelessly unable to assert any true authority over the country. It seems at this point, America is simply staving off collapse of the Karzai government and hoping to God that Pakistan remains stable and is willing to accept what meager support they offer. There have been talks of negotiations with the Taliban, but at this point it almost seems like they have the upper hand - which is not good for us.
What America really needs is a stable Pakistan who is willing to fight against the Taliban on its side of the border and one who is willing to actively work to dampen the Islamist movement by providing the things its people expect of it. This doesn't seem like it can ever happen though so long as India remains the sole obsession of the military and the Kashmir remains an issue. I believe that our ability to withdraw from Afghanistan and to see the country rebuild its self is directly dependent on support from Pakistan... support which we are not recieving. If we were to withdraw with things as they are, I have no doubt that the Taliban would quickly defeat the Karzai government and re-gain power, and we'd be back to 2001, or perhaps back to 1992 in the midst of another civil war. In addition, without aid from America there is a real possibility that Pakistan may find its self in a civil war against the Pakistan Taliban, and the stakes are much higher there than in Afghanistan.
I don't think its possible for America to leave this region any time soon. Even if we get Afghanistan sorted out, we are too tangled up with the mess in Pakistan that some American presence is going to be needed for a long time, and many billions more are going to need to be spent. If defeat of the Taliban is the goal, we're never going to leave. If nation building and the solidification of the Karzai government is the goal, we're going to have to work out a deal with the Taliban, and still American presence and money is going to be required. There just aren't any quick ways out...
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